Refining industry, high prosperity, the rapid development of ethylene industry. Global refineries have grown slowly and refineries have continued to increase. China's refining capacity overcapacity, backward production capacity to accelerate the progress of the upgrading of industrial structure optimization. In 2016, the global ethylene production capacity increased steadily (about 162 million tons / year, a net increase of 1.9 million tons in 2015, an increase of 1.9%), the industry operating rate remained high (89.6%). In 2016, China's total ethylene production capacity continued to grow (up to 23.105 million tons / year), production consumption increased (output growth rate of 3.9%, consumption growth rate of 4.2%). It is estimated that by 2020 the total domestic ethylene production capacity will reach 32 million tons / year.

Chemical raw materials show diversified development trend. In recent years, petrochemical industry olefins raw materials show a diversified development trend. In addition to naphtha olefins, coal-based olefins (CTO), methanol to olefins (MTO), light hydrocarbons (including ethane, propane, butane, etc.) route, natural gas and synthesis gas to olefins and other methods of rapid development, Out of coal-based acetylene to olefins and other new routes. China to naphtha to olefins, accounting for declining year on year (2016 in 48%), olefin raw materials diversified roads will continue to expand and widen.

Lightweight advantages of raw materials is obvious, the industry will be the general trend of development. Light production of raw materials with high yield, low cost, less investment projects, low energy consumption, pollution and other advantages. Domestic chemical raw materials are facing the direction of the development of light, that is, from naphtha to light hydrocarbons, LPG, natural gas and other gas resources in the direction of change. From a global perspective, the US ethylene raw materials mainly from shale gas by-product ethane, is expected to be more than 80% by 2020, while the Middle East is also expanding the proportion of light raw materials. At present, more than 90% of the petrochemical plant in the Middle East, more than 70% of the North American petrochemical plant has achieved a light of raw materials. We believe that by 2020 the proportion of global naphtha will drop to about 40%.

Ethylene cracking ethylene prospects, the domestic is still in its infancy. Global ethylene supply and demand situation as a whole is relatively balanced, the United States is the only export area of ​​ethane, ethane prices in recent years, a slight downturn. Ethylene cracking ethylene does not exist technical bottlenecks, low cost of raw materials, can greatly enhance the ethylene yield, but also affected the supply of by-products such as C3C4. Global ethylene plant mainly concentrated in the Middle East and North America, China has built fewer devices, is still in its infancy, the development of many challenges facing.

Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cracking developed smoothly. PDH route cost advantage is significant, higher profit margins and return on investment. Propylene - propane spread at a high level of high availability for PDH to provide room for development. China PDH steady development, the project has been launched, as of the end of 2016 PDH total capacity of more than 8 million tons / year, is expected by 2020 total production capacity will exceed 15 million tons / year. LPG cracking industry applications less, mainly through the PDH device to achieve, LPG deep processing will promote the development of C4, the future of LPG direct cracking of olefins will gradually start for the light of raw materials to add new elements.

1. Refining and chemical industry high economy, diversified chemical raw materials, light

1.1 Refining capacity tends to be stable and the capacity structure is optimized

Global refining capacity is growing slowly, mainly in the Asia Pacific, Europe and North America. Global refinery capacity to maintain a slow growth in 2016, the world's total refinery production capacity of 97430 thousand barrels / day (about 4.872 billion tons / year), an increase of 0.45%, since 2006 the average annual compound growth rate of 1.0%. Refining capacity is mainly distributed in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and Eurasia and North America, accounting for 33.7%, 23.9% and 22.7%. The United States, China and Russia ranked the world's top three refining capacity, the total contribution of 39216 thousand barrels / day, accounting for 40% of the total capacity. The new refining capacity of about 437.8 barrels / day, mainly from China, Iran, India, Turkmenistan and other countries.